Snapchat and my Daughters (14 Oct 14 by gins)

By now you've heard of the latest security breach - the Snapsaved (now shut down) Snapchat client hacked and hundreds of thousands of potentially damaging photos posted to 4chan.  Now, although Snapchat itself was not the target, many, my daughters included, post to it, and to be honest, i don't know if they've been using the Snapsaved client (or some other client, yet to be hacked).   My bad!  But we do limit in-app purchases. The problem is that many of these casual applications are no-charge.  And i'm sure that they don't read the small-print when downloading said applications, as to what is saved and what is not.  Where to draw the line?

In a world where Instagram is the new clique, replacing clothes and what kind of house you live in, I can't really cut them off.  But i can give my daughters, ages 10 and 11, guidance, beyond the standard school Internet good citizen briefing on content and bullying.  Guidance that reflects more of the real world, like what happened to that unfortunate girl in Saratoga, just five miles from our house.  And guidance that can be understood by a very distracted ten year-old.

1.  Never post a picture or opinion that you'd not want to have viewed or read by a future employer, by college admission, or even by your close friends.   I know we've heard all of this before.  A scary statistic by the CTIA - 46% of adolescents, ages 11 to 17, have received a message or picture their parents would disapprove of due to sexual content.

2.  The same applies for pictures or opinions of friends (or non-friends).  What goes around comes around.

3.  Never (ever) be put in a position where someone has the opportunity take a picture that you'd not want to see posted.  Something to be said about a buddy system at parties, especially once they hit high school.

4.  Never share private information.  Once again, nothing new.

Over the last year, the CTIA has published some great infographics on www.growingwireless.com.   Worth taking a look.  And within the site, the resources page has a wealth of information spanning smartphone OSs and cellular providers.

Time to have that conversation!

Kids and Gadgets (by gins, 23 Feb 2014)

A recent CNET article hit close to home in articulating just how much kids have changed in only the last five years.  We have two daughters, ages 9 and 11, and they had just passed preschool when the first iPads were released.  Nevertheless, it took no time at all for each to adopt their own (or was it the other way around?).  Applications consisted of both casual games and those that included logic and learning.  And yes, I place 'The Room' in this latter category.  Fast forward to this past year, and they each have iPhones, and both live parts of their lives (and those of their friends) via Instagram and messaging.  Not necessarily a bad thing, though my oldest daughter had upwards of 1500 texts last month.  The flip-side of this... despite what seems to be an engineered after-school experience, they definitely interact more (in person) with their classmates and have plenty of opportunity to burn off excess energy as part of their dance activities.  More than I had at times.  Weekends are for cocooning, but that could be the tradeoff.  So is it bad or good?   Just different, and the new reality in the valley.

Sign of the Times - 13 Jun 2012 by gins

Game-on with Windows Phone 7? - 13 Oct 2010 - by gins

This week, Microsoft took their first necessary step on the road to mobile redemption... the long-anticipated Windows Phone 7 launch. Response was generally upbeat, and although it is too early to place bets, due to both operator and vendor support, the platform will in fact have an impact on the smartphone OS space and on the application developer community. On a personal level, I'm more optimistic of Microsoft's prospects now than at any time over the last two years.

Referencing some of my earlier blogs, I doubt the OS will have a meaningful impact on Apple or on Android (Steve Ballmer's comments notwithstanding), while Symbian, webOS, and the Linux-based also-rans will probably suffer. RIM remains an enigma due to its installed base and focus. RIM's absolute market-share will continue to drop, but the market is large enough for four strong players. So, where did Microsoft get it right, and where do they have work to do?

User Experience - Positive: Here is where they got it right by mandating a minimal set of hardware requirements, despite the negative impact on the low-end of the market that will provide Android with a free reign in the 'value' smartphone space. The hardware baseline will positively impact application development based on this assured experience and will avoid some of the OS version fragmentation experienced within the Android community. However, I do think that the devices initially released don't necessarily take full advantage of the promise of of the OS, and there will probably be a shakeout in terms of form factors.... what works, and what doesn't. Early reviews tend to bear this out.

Windows Marketplace - Neutral to Positive: The marketplace is easy to navigate, or not any less so than iTunes. A current disadvantage is the requirement to purchase apps via credit cards, no different than iTunes, but leveraging a much smaller subscriber base. Going forward, given operator-based payments, this disadvantage should disappear and may actually turn out to be an advantage in other regions.

Device Ecosystem - Negative: Here is where Redmond has work to do, and where Apple has a commanding advantage with its iPod and iPad, especially when one looks at recent sales trends. There are over 120 million iDevices in circulation, begetting a massive developer community. And, control over the user experience is more assured, further encouraging high-end application development and providing an advantage over Android. Given WP7's aim at the higher-end of the market, a viable iPod-type device as well as a tablet based on WP7 are essential in providing a critical mass for application development.

Operator Support - Positive: WP7 presents a less intimidating option for operators than Apple, in that it follows more closely their traditional operator - handset vendor - OS provider ecosystem and provides for operator branding and differentiation. Given the diversity of hardware and wide operator support, this should help drive demand.

Gaming - Positive: Too early to predict, but the Xbox tie-in is unique in the mobile community, and could have a positive impact on device uptake by hard-core gamers. This is Microsoft's battle to lose, and I personally think that WP7 devices could make great remotes.

You Can Have Your Tablet Any Way You Want It...... OS Fragmentation Revisited and Security Implications - 1 Oct 2010 - by gins

In what seems like an eternity ago, enterprise IT managers were confounded with the first wave of mobile workers, toting devices based on Pocket PC 2000 and 2002 (offering phone support), followed by Windows Mobile 2003 (offered as Premium, Phone, Professional, and Smart Phones.... you get the idea), 2003 2nd edition, 5.x (integrating Exchange support), 6.x, also offered in multiple versions (Standard, Professional, and Classic), and with 6.5 introducing the Windows Phone brnading, and the week after next, Windows Phone 7. Seen this movie before?

Just when it seemed there was a bit of rationalization in the enterprise space, with IT managers converging on RIM, Windows Phone, and more recently the iPhone and Android, along comes the tablet with a completely new set of support and security issues.

On the OS front, we've now got the iPad running iOS, and multiple revisions of Android with handset vendor customizations. I doubt a Samsung Galaxy Tab, a Dell Streak, the Cisco CIUS, and a host of other Android tablets will exhibit the same behavior when users call for support. Got Security? In the other corner are the Windows 7, RIM Tablet OS (based on QNX), and HP devices (based on webOS). At least one would hope these are secure. Add a bit of Windows Phone 7, Symbian, and who knows what else, and if I were an IT manager I'd be very worried.

Unlike smartphones, where document viewing is a painful experience at best, the tablet lends itself to content storage in the same way as a laptop. Product powerpoints, COGS spreadsheets, internal launch videos, functional descriptions... bring 'em on! Apps developers are falling over themselves perfecting the various forms of side and cloud-loading, and iOS 4.2 will even further the problem. I personally find that a simple email enclosure addressed to me does the trick, in combination with GoodReader. The scary part is my cavalier attitude toward my iPad, toting it around and stashing it in all sorts of undignified places. Oh the stories it could tell.

So, beyond the OS, my firm belief is that the document management problem will create many a late night headaches for IT personnel. This is what must be addressed for risk-free tablet adoption within the enterprise. And the problem is real. I see it within some of the largest and security-savvy tech companies in the valley. Best practices implemented as part of smartphone deployments seem to be cast by the wayside in equipping employees with tablets. Consider it a wakeup call.

If an Apple falls in the forest.... - Friday, 10 Sep 2010 - by gins

This morning, Gartner published its latest predictions on Smartphone OS penetration, showing Symbian and Android each with about 30% of the market by 2014, followed by Apple (14.9%) and RIM (11.7%). The Windows Phone is relegated to an also-ran and webOS and MeeGo are nowhere to be found. The bloggers are in a frenzy, pointing out Apple's compromised position. These numbers confirm what I wrote earlier in the week, and I think it is RIM (and Microsoft) that are in trouble.

However, the analyst community is doing itself a dis-service by highlighting absolute percentages in a growing market without deeper analysis on market impact. And what seems to be missing in translation by cnet, the Boy Genius Report, and others is that Apple's 15% translates to 130 million smartphones, not counting other iOS devices. Here, Apple has an advantage over Symbian and RIM. I bet that they also maintain profitability leadership, and when running a company, that is worth more than absolute marketshare. Apple will have also avoided the fragmentation that impacts both the user experience and the developer community. That last comment is addressed to both Android and going forward, I suspect Symbian as well. More on this topic next week, but overall, not a bad position for Apple to be in.

The current approach by most analysts - a failure to synergize the various facts and market drivers - calls into question their continued relevancy. Just last week I was speaking with someone influential at a large software company, and he described how their customers are moving away from 'classical' analyst engagements and turning more to vendors, the financial community, and university-driven research groups.

The Numbers Game - 9 Sep 2010 - by gins

Ten years ago, we were all caught up in the swirl of analyst reports covering how many billions would be spent on optical networking, how many eyeballs were destined to the latest new media website, or how many sock puppets a business model made. Thus, whenever I see the 'B' world floated around, it catches my interest.

Yesterday, Asymco reported that the total number of iapps downloaded would equal iTunes music downloads sometime this year. Today, the iTunes count is approx. 12 billion while the appstore count is closer to 7. Sure, that is an important observation, but the less informed may leave thinking that the iThing's day for music is over. The reality is quite the opposite.

I've got 7700 songs on my iTunes server (all legal, with the CDs collecting dust in the basement). This is 39GB. At any time, I've transferred between 3-5GB to my iPad or those of my kids. Only about 20 in total have been purchased from the iTunes store. While gaming, the kids play music (though my multitasking ability isn't quite there). With true multitasking in a few months enabling the likes of Pandora and Spotify, this will become the norm for many surfing the web or composing an email.

What the numbers do show, however, is the increasing stickiness of the icosystem... the power of recommendation in driving impulse downloads, and disposable applications - those that you download once, kick around a bit, and then push off to the side. You know what would be fun? A tracker much like that which exists for Windows that groups application by last use and time... how many are opened on a daily or weekly basis, and how usage falls off over time (irrespective of how many new levels the Angry Birds folks crank out... I see this firsthand at home). Now that info I'd share. We could make a game of the numbers.

War of the Worlds (or the March of the Androids Revisited) - 30 Aug 10 - by gins

This morning, RCR Wireless Unplugged published an updated table comparing Android hardware specifications. It brings clarity to just how important Android is becoming to operators, handset vendors, and application developers. The diversity of form factors, price points, and (less fortunately), OS version levels, demonstrates the vibrancy of customer choice offered by the Android ecosystem, and is reflected in Android device and developer growth. And, as expected, as I've covered in the past, it begs the question... what is to become of Windows Phone 7, RIM, HP-Palm, and Symbian. I'll leave off Apple due to the company's stated intent to focus on a more limited, higher-end market (with margins to show for it.... to be specific, Apple doesn't need to be #1 or #2 in volume to succeed), as well as the iTunes/iOS ecosystem. Looking into the near future, the other four have tall orders in front of them.

We'll assume Android consolidates at #1. There is probably room for a viable #2, and then there are the table-scraps. Take a page from Jack Welch's GE playbook: Welch's public philosophy was that a company should be either #1 or #2 in a particular industry, or else leave it completely. Welch's strategy was later adopted by other CEOs across corporate America. Although this mantra has been questioned of late, I do think that at least in the smartphone space, there is little room for carving a niche.

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System in 2Q10 (Thousands of Units)

Company	2Q10 Units	2Q10 Market Share (%)	2Q09 Units	2Q09 Market Share (%)
Symbian	25,386.8	41.2	20,880.8	51.0
Research In Motion	11,228.8	18.2	7,782.2	19.0
Android	10,606.1	17.2	755.9	1.8
iOS	8,743.0	14.2	5,325.0	13.0
Microsoft Windows Mobile	3,096.4	5.0	3,829.7	9.3
Linux	1,503.1	2.4	1,901.1	4.6
Other OSs	1,084.8	1.8	497.1	1.2
Total	61,649.1	100.0	40,971.8	100.0

Source: Gartner (August 2010)

HP faces challenges. Although they've stated their intent to push webOS across a diversity of form factors including tablets, there is only so much top-down leverage within the enterprise. Just look at Windows Mobile, and HP does not have a stellar track record in this regard with the the iPAQ. They'll face the iPad, an assortment of Android tablets from the likes of Cisco (cius) and Samsung, and developer apathy. Looking at Cisco's positioning, I expect the cius to be a strong contender within the enterprise, and they were smart in focusing on their skillsets rather than trying to reinvent the OS. Sure, HP they may carve out a niche, but that begs the question of the investment in Palm and the distraction that it creates. 3PAR (still in-play as I write this) seems to be a safer bet.

Microsoft will need every weapon in its war chest to make a go of Windows Phone 7. Just this week, another OEM - Dell - was rumored to have jumped ship, leaving LG, HTC, and Samsung. Dell, lacking the WM pedigree of HTC or the volumes that LG and Samsung drive would do themselves a favor by focusing on one OS - Android. In any case, given increasing acceptance within the enterprise of the iPhone, and now Android, not to mention BB, Ballmer needs to get creative, and not creative in the way of Kin. As users consolidate on a single device in may cases, and are given the choice as to what this device may be, the Windows Phone is not top of mind. I'll ask the question voiced by so many... does Microsoft get mobile?

I've always respected RIM, but guys.... you've got to think differently. Last spring I wrote in an open letter to RIM's CEOs that the 9700 would probably be my fifth and last blackberry. I patiently waited through the Torch launch, but it just doesn't do anything for me. I'll hold out for OS6 release on the 9700, though from what I've seen posted on the web, sometime this fall I'll be making that fateful call to AT&T, shifting to the iPhone (more on the back of my in-home iecosystem rather than any love for the iOS experience over Android).

I've read that RIM has sold somewhere around a quarter of a million Torches since launch. In about the same timeframe, Samsung has sold on the order of a million Galaxy S Android devices. The BB App World is uninspiring, and the % of users who plan a BB as their next device continues to drop. This is the most troublesome point, faced by Windows Mobile as well. Given employee choice, the next smartphone is unlikely to be a BB. And, more often than not, where a BB is issued by the enterprise, the employee also carries around an iPhone or Android device. Not a pretty picture if you are looking at things from north of the border. Thus the reasons for downgrades of RIM stock (and not just on the back of concerns regarding India and the Middle East). So what are they to do?

RIMs' rumored tablet is said to be based on QNX, an OS developed by a company RIM purchased earlier in the year. From what I see of the Torch, RIM's existing OS infrastructure, OS6 included, could be coming up against a wall with regard to hardware support and extensibility. QNX could provide the needed clean slate for RIM's next generation of smarphones, but only time will tell. And, they are still limited in the same way as HP (and Apple)... a vertically integrated hardware and software offering. This could continue to be their major challenge in the future (vs the Windows Phone or even HP's webOS if they open it to external hardware developers), but I'll given them the benefit of the doubt and cast them as #3 after Android and Apple, through probably still relevant in terms of market impact.

Then there is Symbian. The mighty ducks. Although still commanding a market lead, due to legacy than anything else. they too face handset vendor apathy (Nokia excepted), marginal developer loyalty, and a Symbian Foundation that has proven to be less than totally effective. The Europeans used to think of the US as being behind the market, based on the sophistication of Symbian devices. In fact, maybe we were just anticipating the market. While Android devices continue to push the limits of hardware design and usability, recent efforts by Nokia and Sony-Ericsson have been less successful. This is reflected in the top smartphones across Tier 1 European operators, a mix of Android, Apple, RIM, and Symbian. This mix would have been unheard of just two years ago, and the tables continue to turn. I suspect that Symbian will continue to find success on the back of Nokia's global presence and S60 momentum, but it will lose the mind and marketshare at the top end. Symbian may take a long time to fall from #1, but when it does, will anyone notice? Looking 2-3 years out, I'll place them at #2 after Android. This ignores Apple, #2 or #3 in terms of volume... hard to tell.

Where does that leave us? Android as a clear #1, eventually dominating vendor mindshare and the majority of operator smartphone offerings across multiple price-points. Apple as #2 in revenue, margin, and impact, if not in volume. An enviable position to be in. Symbian holding on to #2 in volume after Android, though possibly slipping to #3 behind Apple. RIM most probably #4 in volume, though still impactful in the market. I look at the Windows Phone and webOS (as well as the multiple other Linux variants which you notice I’ve ignored) as also-rans, possible successful in niches but having minimal market impact. The real question then will be how the market and ultimately, consumers, take to the #3 and #4 players, the strong and the weak, as characterized by a former colleague of mine. Only time will tell.