Evolution in Action - 15 Dec 10 by gins

The recent reports of Android dominance Asymco based on an ITG Investment analysis seems to have created a firestorm of controversy as to the source and validity of the data, as well as implications for both Verizon and RIM. In the report, ITG stated that over a twelve-month period, the share of Blackberry smartphones sold via Verizon’s retail channels dropped from over 90% to under 20%. At the same time, the share of Android phones, spread amongst a number of handset vendors, grew to over 80%. Net-net, RIM is out of favor, and Android is Verizon’s proxy for the iPhone (separate from rumors regarding when and if Verizon will actually carry the device).

Now, Asymco went on to state that Verizon has three strikes against them due to reliance on Android and lack of the iPhone. This is an over-simplistic view. One point of contention is whether BB sales into Verizon are understated due to the enterprise channel. But this is beside the point. Android growth within Verizon is actually a good thing, freeing the provider from dominance on a single supplier and given Android’s broad hardware base, offering customers greater choice. One would expect a greater percentage of Verizon’s featurephone customers to eventually migrate to Android than the same percentage of AT&Ts. Of course, some of this will depend upon how Verizon chooses to stratify the Android market, and they’d be wise to do so.

The real question is what about RIM? A follow-up article went on to state that the company is doing well overseas, and that their new OS, QNX, has a bright future. Typical statements when things are rotten at home. A while back, in an open letter to RIM, I stated that time was running out. A year later, and I’ve not seen much progress. The form factor and user experience is losing favor amongst both consumers and those purchasing employee-liable devices for work, and even within the enterprise, these are the same individuals who will be shortly making purchasing decisions. For all the negative rhetoric about iPhone and Android security, current solutions seem to be ‘good enough.’

So, think of it as evolution in action… a quickening of the long shakeout. Over the past few months we’ve seen the Symbian Foundation close, re-absorbed into Nokia. The long-awaited Windows Phone 7 launch was successful, but I personally have not seen anyone I know with one of these devices. Samsung’s bada may have some traction, mainly overseas, and Palm has gone into hibernation within HP. I have hope for RIM, but the possibility that it will take its place as a dried up twig on the smartphone family tree grows stronger every day.

Game-on with Windows Phone 7? - 13 Oct 2010 - by gins

This week, Microsoft took their first necessary step on the road to mobile redemption... the long-anticipated Windows Phone 7 launch. Response was generally upbeat, and although it is too early to place bets, due to both operator and vendor support, the platform will in fact have an impact on the smartphone OS space and on the application developer community. On a personal level, I'm more optimistic of Microsoft's prospects now than at any time over the last two years.

Referencing some of my earlier blogs, I doubt the OS will have a meaningful impact on Apple or on Android (Steve Ballmer's comments notwithstanding), while Symbian, webOS, and the Linux-based also-rans will probably suffer. RIM remains an enigma due to its installed base and focus. RIM's absolute market-share will continue to drop, but the market is large enough for four strong players. So, where did Microsoft get it right, and where do they have work to do?

User Experience - Positive: Here is where they got it right by mandating a minimal set of hardware requirements, despite the negative impact on the low-end of the market that will provide Android with a free reign in the 'value' smartphone space. The hardware baseline will positively impact application development based on this assured experience and will avoid some of the OS version fragmentation experienced within the Android community. However, I do think that the devices initially released don't necessarily take full advantage of the promise of of the OS, and there will probably be a shakeout in terms of form factors.... what works, and what doesn't. Early reviews tend to bear this out.

Windows Marketplace - Neutral to Positive: The marketplace is easy to navigate, or not any less so than iTunes. A current disadvantage is the requirement to purchase apps via credit cards, no different than iTunes, but leveraging a much smaller subscriber base. Going forward, given operator-based payments, this disadvantage should disappear and may actually turn out to be an advantage in other regions.

Device Ecosystem - Negative: Here is where Redmond has work to do, and where Apple has a commanding advantage with its iPod and iPad, especially when one looks at recent sales trends. There are over 120 million iDevices in circulation, begetting a massive developer community. And, control over the user experience is more assured, further encouraging high-end application development and providing an advantage over Android. Given WP7's aim at the higher-end of the market, a viable iPod-type device as well as a tablet based on WP7 are essential in providing a critical mass for application development.

Operator Support - Positive: WP7 presents a less intimidating option for operators than Apple, in that it follows more closely their traditional operator - handset vendor - OS provider ecosystem and provides for operator branding and differentiation. Given the diversity of hardware and wide operator support, this should help drive demand.

Gaming - Positive: Too early to predict, but the Xbox tie-in is unique in the mobile community, and could have a positive impact on device uptake by hard-core gamers. This is Microsoft's battle to lose, and I personally think that WP7 devices could make great remotes.

Google Instant Se&&&&&& - The Brave New World of Cloud-based Blacklisting - 7 Oct 2010 - by gins

In the short time that Google Instant Search has been active, supporters and detractors have been more than vocal on its merits and shortcomings. A few days back, the 2600, a well-known hacker site, published a list of those searches that default to a blank screen instead of a list of most popular search results (as is the case with Google's traditional search interface). The first few entries from the list are as follows:

Now, beyond the simple existence of the list, the do-no-evil acolytes at Google (and yes, the analogy to the Church over the last millennium is intended) have created a rich set of fodder for social psychologists.... a snapshot of the memes, no-fly zones, and politically charged catch-phrases that only an all-encompassing cloud-based intelligence, if I may call it that, can provide. As one of my colleagues noted, the cloud is providing an unprecedented tool to analyze trends and possibly control human behavior, but he then went on to note that unfortunately, although he finds the field fascinating, he can still make more money flogging speeds and feeds.

What is scary is how tools such as instant search can begin to influence research, popular discussion and dissension, and eventually, the very existence of a fact or event. I'm sure the propagandists of the early 20th century only wish they had this power at their disposal. It truly is a Brave New World. Huxley... are you watching?

You Can Have Your Tablet Any Way You Want It...... OS Fragmentation Revisited and Security Implications - 1 Oct 2010 - by gins

In what seems like an eternity ago, enterprise IT managers were confounded with the first wave of mobile workers, toting devices based on Pocket PC 2000 and 2002 (offering phone support), followed by Windows Mobile 2003 (offered as Premium, Phone, Professional, and Smart Phones.... you get the idea), 2003 2nd edition, 5.x (integrating Exchange support), 6.x, also offered in multiple versions (Standard, Professional, and Classic), and with 6.5 introducing the Windows Phone brnading, and the week after next, Windows Phone 7. Seen this movie before?

Just when it seemed there was a bit of rationalization in the enterprise space, with IT managers converging on RIM, Windows Phone, and more recently the iPhone and Android, along comes the tablet with a completely new set of support and security issues.

On the OS front, we've now got the iPad running iOS, and multiple revisions of Android with handset vendor customizations. I doubt a Samsung Galaxy Tab, a Dell Streak, the Cisco CIUS, and a host of other Android tablets will exhibit the same behavior when users call for support. Got Security? In the other corner are the Windows 7, RIM Tablet OS (based on QNX), and HP devices (based on webOS). At least one would hope these are secure. Add a bit of Windows Phone 7, Symbian, and who knows what else, and if I were an IT manager I'd be very worried.

Unlike smartphones, where document viewing is a painful experience at best, the tablet lends itself to content storage in the same way as a laptop. Product powerpoints, COGS spreadsheets, internal launch videos, functional descriptions... bring 'em on! Apps developers are falling over themselves perfecting the various forms of side and cloud-loading, and iOS 4.2 will even further the problem. I personally find that a simple email enclosure addressed to me does the trick, in combination with GoodReader. The scary part is my cavalier attitude toward my iPad, toting it around and stashing it in all sorts of undignified places. Oh the stories it could tell.

So, beyond the OS, my firm belief is that the document management problem will create many a late night headaches for IT personnel. This is what must be addressed for risk-free tablet adoption within the enterprise. And the problem is real. I see it within some of the largest and security-savvy tech companies in the valley. Best practices implemented as part of smartphone deployments seem to be cast by the wayside in equipping employees with tablets. Consider it a wakeup call.

Find my Phone! (For a Price) - 24 Sep 2010 - by gins

In the tug-of-war between the mobile operator and the handset vendor for the hearts and minds of the subscriber, the two are now battling it out on a new front... in-cloud mobile services for consumers such as backup, remote data wipe, and the ability to locate a lost phone.

The recent rash of announcements in this space are in fact only the latest campaign in a field pioneered by Apple with its MobileMe, Microsoft with in-cloud services tied to Windows Mobile 6.5, MOTOBLUR, and some early (and not too intuitive) offerings by the mobile operators. But the stakes are higher now, with the newest bunch of Android phones, tablets, and the potential for the operator to lose and never to regain subscriber mindshare.

This last summer, RIM announced BlackBerry Protect and Samsung announced their 'Dive' service for Bada OS phones. Neither are yet available. More recently, screenshots were leaked all but confirming the same functionality on Microsoft's soon to be released Windows Phone 7 platform. And earlier this month, HTC, as part of its Android Sense relaunch, announced a website where users will be able to locate, lock/wipe, and manage data on their phone.

Not to be left by the wayside, last week Verizon jumped back into the fray with 'Mobile Recovery', an OS-agnostic solution for remote lock-and-wipe as well as an Apple-like locator function. On this surface, this is smart, but the question is how many subscribers actually subscribe to the operator's Total Equipment Coverage program at $8/month and a $89 deductible per claim. Still, it is a noble effort, and if marketed correctly (i.e., free to premium subscribers, as opposed to the graphic above inferring that this program is cost-free), VZW could gain some mindshare for their other services such as app stores. The question is how effectively it will compete against vendor offerings, some of which are free.

The Ties that Bind: 37.11667 north, 121.96528 west - 21 Sep 2010 - by gins

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to ride a bit through the Santa Cruz mountains, my loop taking me past one of the tunnel entrances from the old San Jose to Santa Cruz railway. With each passing year, the very existence of this engineering marvel passes further into memory. But a century ago, the line was at its peak, connecting mountain resorts to families from throughout the Bay Area, and connecting orchards to their customers.

These tunnels and viaducts were the ties that bound us to each other, compressing distance and time. As I pulled out my Blackberry for the photo above, I was taken back to that time of steam engines and sawmills, while thinking about the same role cellphones play today. And, to my surprise, I did actually have a usable 3G signal deep in the mountain ravine.

Till Death Do Us Part: Smartphones and the Afterlife - 16 Sep 2010 - by gins

Throughout history, certain cultures have believed that an individual's journey into the afterlife would be aided by burying, alongside the body, necessities of daily life. This included food, clothing, and even a concubine or two, reflective of society at the time. The ancient Egyptians of course took this to the extreme.

So, I chuckled when the print edition of Fortune magazine this week (September 27, 2010) reported on a growing trend in Asia. Paper facsimiles of cellphones, available in stores, are burned with the dead so that relatives may communicate in the afterlife. This leaves me wondering if it also includes texting, and I'm sure that if this hits our shores, the Goth could be a captive audience for Apple's Facetime.

Caveat Emptor.... Android Fragmentation Redux and the Tablet Experience - 14 Sep 2010 - by gins

Last fall, an ex-colleague of mine wrote about Android OS fragmentation, discussing the variations due to smartphone form factors, OS versions, operator requirements, and Google Experience vs non-Google experience devices. Good reading. With the impending release of Android tablets, the problem, and its potential impact on the user experience, has only grown.

The user experience depends upon a complex interplay of the device, skilled application developers, and wireless access (WiFi, 3G, or 4G) if required by the application. Even on the iPad, though Apple controls some of these variables, there is a vast difference between those applications crafted for the iPad's form factor, and those that only rely on pixel doubling.

Android developers are in fact faced with a moving target - multiple OS versions, a diversity of form factors and price-points that impact display quality and resolution, CPU performance, and memory, and OEM customizations such as UI overlays. This is coupled with statements by none other than Google's Android team concerning Froyo's (2.2) lack of optimization of use on tablets.

What exactly does this mean when considering whether to purchase that shiny Samsung Galaxy Tab in the window. And what user experience would one expect from a tablet rumored to be $35 or even $100? How does an application developer optimize for both the high-end and the low-end, for both tablets and smartphones? OEMs developing the tablets, Google and the Android OS community, mobile operators potentially carrying the tablets under subsidy, and the application developer community have one opportunity to get this right to avoid confusion and unmet expectations. At least in the near term, part of the burden will lie with the user. Trust, but verify, and heed the watchwords, Caveat Emptor. And to the OEMs... Caveat Venditor.

If an Apple falls in the forest.... - Friday, 10 Sep 2010 - by gins

This morning, Gartner published its latest predictions on Smartphone OS penetration, showing Symbian and Android each with about 30% of the market by 2014, followed by Apple (14.9%) and RIM (11.7%). The Windows Phone is relegated to an also-ran and webOS and MeeGo are nowhere to be found. The bloggers are in a frenzy, pointing out Apple's compromised position. These numbers confirm what I wrote earlier in the week, and I think it is RIM (and Microsoft) that are in trouble.

However, the analyst community is doing itself a dis-service by highlighting absolute percentages in a growing market without deeper analysis on market impact. And what seems to be missing in translation by cnet, the Boy Genius Report, and others is that Apple's 15% translates to 130 million smartphones, not counting other iOS devices. Here, Apple has an advantage over Symbian and RIM. I bet that they also maintain profitability leadership, and when running a company, that is worth more than absolute marketshare. Apple will have also avoided the fragmentation that impacts both the user experience and the developer community. That last comment is addressed to both Android and going forward, I suspect Symbian as well. More on this topic next week, but overall, not a bad position for Apple to be in.

The current approach by most analysts - a failure to synergize the various facts and market drivers - calls into question their continued relevancy. Just last week I was speaking with someone influential at a large software company, and he described how their customers are moving away from 'classical' analyst engagements and turning more to vendors, the financial community, and university-driven research groups.

The Numbers Game - 9 Sep 2010 - by gins

Ten years ago, we were all caught up in the swirl of analyst reports covering how many billions would be spent on optical networking, how many eyeballs were destined to the latest new media website, or how many sock puppets a business model made. Thus, whenever I see the 'B' world floated around, it catches my interest.

Yesterday, Asymco reported that the total number of iapps downloaded would equal iTunes music downloads sometime this year. Today, the iTunes count is approx. 12 billion while the appstore count is closer to 7. Sure, that is an important observation, but the less informed may leave thinking that the iThing's day for music is over. The reality is quite the opposite.

I've got 7700 songs on my iTunes server (all legal, with the CDs collecting dust in the basement). This is 39GB. At any time, I've transferred between 3-5GB to my iPad or those of my kids. Only about 20 in total have been purchased from the iTunes store. While gaming, the kids play music (though my multitasking ability isn't quite there). With true multitasking in a few months enabling the likes of Pandora and Spotify, this will become the norm for many surfing the web or composing an email.

What the numbers do show, however, is the increasing stickiness of the icosystem... the power of recommendation in driving impulse downloads, and disposable applications - those that you download once, kick around a bit, and then push off to the side. You know what would be fun? A tracker much like that which exists for Windows that groups application by last use and time... how many are opened on a daily or weekly basis, and how usage falls off over time (irrespective of how many new levels the Angry Birds folks crank out... I see this firsthand at home). Now that info I'd share. We could make a game of the numbers.

Gaga for Telephony - 7 Sep 2010 - by gins

Though not that relevant to mobility, the following does relate to telephony... sort of....

If you were to Google 'telephone', the first entry, as expected, is for the wiki entry. However, the next two are not related to AT&T, Alexander Graham Bell, or anything else having to do with the latest cordless phone. They are links for Lady Gaga's Telephone video. You know... the one with Beyonce that has generated an entire sub-culture of parodies.

It really says something about the temporal nature of our culture and of what some consider to be factual information... search results on Google. What the search results do highlight is Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta's masterful understanding and use of new media, covered by a friend of mine over at Cisco. As an exercise, put yourself in the place of some alien trying to understand our culture based on these queries. Scary.

Maybe its time for a dual-approach to search results, what I'll call G'base and G'now. G'base is time and impact weighted, while G'now reflects current memes. G'base is more of the research tool, while G'now provides water cooler fodder. You get the idea.

The Runaround: Smartphone Support - 3 Sep 2010 - by gins

While at my previous employer, InnoPath, I occasionally wrote about difficulties customers had with support.... the inability of the mobile operators to resolve customer smartphone usability issues on the first call, and the finger-pointing between the operator, the handset vendor, and the OS platform provider such as Microsoft or Google (Android). Well, it seems as if the problem has not gone away, and in fact may be getting worse as a new, less clueful generation of smartphone users encounter Android, Blackberry, or even the iPhone for the first time.

This morning, Maggie over at CNET reported on an issue at Sprint, with some functionality lost or no longer operating as stated after upgrading an HTC Android phone. The response by Sprint was unsympathetic and probably not in the interest of future customer loyalty. I'm sure these issues are not limited to Sprint or HTC, but there has got to be room for at least one mobile operator (T-Mobile?) that champions the customer... that engenders a loyalty experience more along the lines of Nordstrom (known to take returns, no questions asked) than the airlines.

In fact, mobile operators should hope that history doesn't repeat itself leading to a 'smartphone customer bill of rights' echoing that which has been enforced for the airlines and the credit card issuers. It would be ironic if their hands were tied in the same way that they currently tie the hands of their most loyal customers.

Soul Brothers: Samsung and Android - 2 Sep 2010 - by gins

At the end of August I wrote about the ascendancy of Android, focusing on handset vendors, mobile operators, and application developers. Samsung's recent successes confirm this trend. Today, Samsung announced the Galaxy Tab, possibly the most competitive tablet to the iPad. Looking at the hardware specs alone, it surpasses the iPad in many ways and is quite compelling for those not locked into the icosystem. At least for the moment, Samsung and Android truly are soul brothers.

And recently, Bloomberg took a comprehensive look at Samsung's goals, including topping $400B in revenue by 2020. Yes, that's 400 with a 'B'. Intelligently, they pin their future to the likes of Apple, Google, and Facebook, riding the crest of the smartphone wave and the digitization of the home. And I'll admit, that after Apple, I've probably got more Samsung gear around the house than that by any other vendor. Here in the Valley that says a lot.

War of the Worlds (or the March of the Androids Revisited) - 30 Aug 10 - by gins

This morning, RCR Wireless Unplugged published an updated table comparing Android hardware specifications. It brings clarity to just how important Android is becoming to operators, handset vendors, and application developers. The diversity of form factors, price points, and (less fortunately), OS version levels, demonstrates the vibrancy of customer choice offered by the Android ecosystem, and is reflected in Android device and developer growth. And, as expected, as I've covered in the past, it begs the question... what is to become of Windows Phone 7, RIM, HP-Palm, and Symbian. I'll leave off Apple due to the company's stated intent to focus on a more limited, higher-end market (with margins to show for it.... to be specific, Apple doesn't need to be #1 or #2 in volume to succeed), as well as the iTunes/iOS ecosystem. Looking into the near future, the other four have tall orders in front of them.

We'll assume Android consolidates at #1. There is probably room for a viable #2, and then there are the table-scraps. Take a page from Jack Welch's GE playbook: Welch's public philosophy was that a company should be either #1 or #2 in a particular industry, or else leave it completely. Welch's strategy was later adopted by other CEOs across corporate America. Although this mantra has been questioned of late, I do think that at least in the smartphone space, there is little room for carving a niche.

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System in 2Q10 (Thousands of Units)

Company	2Q10 Units	2Q10 Market Share (%)	2Q09 Units	2Q09 Market Share (%)
Symbian	25,386.8	41.2	20,880.8	51.0
Research In Motion	11,228.8	18.2	7,782.2	19.0
Android	10,606.1	17.2	755.9	1.8
iOS	8,743.0	14.2	5,325.0	13.0
Microsoft Windows Mobile	3,096.4	5.0	3,829.7	9.3
Linux	1,503.1	2.4	1,901.1	4.6
Other OSs	1,084.8	1.8	497.1	1.2
Total	61,649.1	100.0	40,971.8	100.0

Source: Gartner (August 2010)

HP faces challenges. Although they've stated their intent to push webOS across a diversity of form factors including tablets, there is only so much top-down leverage within the enterprise. Just look at Windows Mobile, and HP does not have a stellar track record in this regard with the the iPAQ. They'll face the iPad, an assortment of Android tablets from the likes of Cisco (cius) and Samsung, and developer apathy. Looking at Cisco's positioning, I expect the cius to be a strong contender within the enterprise, and they were smart in focusing on their skillsets rather than trying to reinvent the OS. Sure, HP they may carve out a niche, but that begs the question of the investment in Palm and the distraction that it creates. 3PAR (still in-play as I write this) seems to be a safer bet.

Microsoft will need every weapon in its war chest to make a go of Windows Phone 7. Just this week, another OEM - Dell - was rumored to have jumped ship, leaving LG, HTC, and Samsung. Dell, lacking the WM pedigree of HTC or the volumes that LG and Samsung drive would do themselves a favor by focusing on one OS - Android. In any case, given increasing acceptance within the enterprise of the iPhone, and now Android, not to mention BB, Ballmer needs to get creative, and not creative in the way of Kin. As users consolidate on a single device in may cases, and are given the choice as to what this device may be, the Windows Phone is not top of mind. I'll ask the question voiced by so many... does Microsoft get mobile?

I've always respected RIM, but guys.... you've got to think differently. Last spring I wrote in an open letter to RIM's CEOs that the 9700 would probably be my fifth and last blackberry. I patiently waited through the Torch launch, but it just doesn't do anything for me. I'll hold out for OS6 release on the 9700, though from what I've seen posted on the web, sometime this fall I'll be making that fateful call to AT&T, shifting to the iPhone (more on the back of my in-home iecosystem rather than any love for the iOS experience over Android).

I've read that RIM has sold somewhere around a quarter of a million Torches since launch. In about the same timeframe, Samsung has sold on the order of a million Galaxy S Android devices. The BB App World is uninspiring, and the % of users who plan a BB as their next device continues to drop. This is the most troublesome point, faced by Windows Mobile as well. Given employee choice, the next smartphone is unlikely to be a BB. And, more often than not, where a BB is issued by the enterprise, the employee also carries around an iPhone or Android device. Not a pretty picture if you are looking at things from north of the border. Thus the reasons for downgrades of RIM stock (and not just on the back of concerns regarding India and the Middle East). So what are they to do?

RIMs' rumored tablet is said to be based on QNX, an OS developed by a company RIM purchased earlier in the year. From what I see of the Torch, RIM's existing OS infrastructure, OS6 included, could be coming up against a wall with regard to hardware support and extensibility. QNX could provide the needed clean slate for RIM's next generation of smarphones, but only time will tell. And, they are still limited in the same way as HP (and Apple)... a vertically integrated hardware and software offering. This could continue to be their major challenge in the future (vs the Windows Phone or even HP's webOS if they open it to external hardware developers), but I'll given them the benefit of the doubt and cast them as #3 after Android and Apple, through probably still relevant in terms of market impact.

Then there is Symbian. The mighty ducks. Although still commanding a market lead, due to legacy than anything else. they too face handset vendor apathy (Nokia excepted), marginal developer loyalty, and a Symbian Foundation that has proven to be less than totally effective. The Europeans used to think of the US as being behind the market, based on the sophistication of Symbian devices. In fact, maybe we were just anticipating the market. While Android devices continue to push the limits of hardware design and usability, recent efforts by Nokia and Sony-Ericsson have been less successful. This is reflected in the top smartphones across Tier 1 European operators, a mix of Android, Apple, RIM, and Symbian. This mix would have been unheard of just two years ago, and the tables continue to turn. I suspect that Symbian will continue to find success on the back of Nokia's global presence and S60 momentum, but it will lose the mind and marketshare at the top end. Symbian may take a long time to fall from #1, but when it does, will anyone notice? Looking 2-3 years out, I'll place them at #2 after Android. This ignores Apple, #2 or #3 in terms of volume... hard to tell.

Where does that leave us? Android as a clear #1, eventually dominating vendor mindshare and the majority of operator smartphone offerings across multiple price-points. Apple as #2 in revenue, margin, and impact, if not in volume. An enviable position to be in. Symbian holding on to #2 in volume after Android, though possibly slipping to #3 behind Apple. RIM most probably #4 in volume, though still impactful in the market. I look at the Windows Phone and webOS (as well as the multiple other Linux variants which you notice I’ve ignored) as also-rans, possible successful in niches but having minimal market impact. The real question then will be how the market and ultimately, consumers, take to the #3 and #4 players, the strong and the weak, as characterized by a former colleague of mine. Only time will tell.