If an Apple falls in the forest.... - Friday, 10 Sep 2010 - by gins

This morning, Gartner published its latest predictions on Smartphone OS penetration, showing Symbian and Android each with about 30% of the market by 2014, followed by Apple (14.9%) and RIM (11.7%). The Windows Phone is relegated to an also-ran and webOS and MeeGo are nowhere to be found. The bloggers are in a frenzy, pointing out Apple's compromised position. These numbers confirm what I wrote earlier in the week, and I think it is RIM (and Microsoft) that are in trouble.

However, the analyst community is doing itself a dis-service by highlighting absolute percentages in a growing market without deeper analysis on market impact. And what seems to be missing in translation by cnet, the Boy Genius Report, and others is that Apple's 15% translates to 130 million smartphones, not counting other iOS devices. Here, Apple has an advantage over Symbian and RIM. I bet that they also maintain profitability leadership, and when running a company, that is worth more than absolute marketshare. Apple will have also avoided the fragmentation that impacts both the user experience and the developer community. That last comment is addressed to both Android and going forward, I suspect Symbian as well. More on this topic next week, but overall, not a bad position for Apple to be in.

The current approach by most analysts - a failure to synergize the various facts and market drivers - calls into question their continued relevancy. Just last week I was speaking with someone influential at a large software company, and he described how their customers are moving away from 'classical' analyst engagements and turning more to vendors, the financial community, and university-driven research groups.