Game of Streaming (11 Apr 15 by gins)

Like me, you're probably a GOT fan.  Problem is, I don't have cable HBO , and though I now credit them with their $15/month over-the-top plan, it doesn't go far enough.  At the house, we have Netflix, Amazon Prime streaming, and more recently, Sling, and would gladly pay for the series one-off.  Note that this is the case for many others via iTunes and Amazon.   But $180/year for effectively 10 episodes. or $18/hour, however juicy, just doesn't make sense.   This is probably 5x what is reasonable, say, $3.60/hour, or equivalent to what you'd pay in the cinema.  I understand the economics that HBO must play into with the cable operators and bundling, and the fact that GOT probably helps fund other productions, but moving the needle even further to the right could help avoid some of the piracy they can expect beginning in just over 24 hours.  Just a thought.

Game-on with Windows Phone 7? - 13 Oct 2010 - by gins

This week, Microsoft took their first necessary step on the road to mobile redemption... the long-anticipated Windows Phone 7 launch. Response was generally upbeat, and although it is too early to place bets, due to both operator and vendor support, the platform will in fact have an impact on the smartphone OS space and on the application developer community. On a personal level, I'm more optimistic of Microsoft's prospects now than at any time over the last two years.

Referencing some of my earlier blogs, I doubt the OS will have a meaningful impact on Apple or on Android (Steve Ballmer's comments notwithstanding), while Symbian, webOS, and the Linux-based also-rans will probably suffer. RIM remains an enigma due to its installed base and focus. RIM's absolute market-share will continue to drop, but the market is large enough for four strong players. So, where did Microsoft get it right, and where do they have work to do?

User Experience - Positive: Here is where they got it right by mandating a minimal set of hardware requirements, despite the negative impact on the low-end of the market that will provide Android with a free reign in the 'value' smartphone space. The hardware baseline will positively impact application development based on this assured experience and will avoid some of the OS version fragmentation experienced within the Android community. However, I do think that the devices initially released don't necessarily take full advantage of the promise of of the OS, and there will probably be a shakeout in terms of form factors.... what works, and what doesn't. Early reviews tend to bear this out.

Windows Marketplace - Neutral to Positive: The marketplace is easy to navigate, or not any less so than iTunes. A current disadvantage is the requirement to purchase apps via credit cards, no different than iTunes, but leveraging a much smaller subscriber base. Going forward, given operator-based payments, this disadvantage should disappear and may actually turn out to be an advantage in other regions.

Device Ecosystem - Negative: Here is where Redmond has work to do, and where Apple has a commanding advantage with its iPod and iPad, especially when one looks at recent sales trends. There are over 120 million iDevices in circulation, begetting a massive developer community. And, control over the user experience is more assured, further encouraging high-end application development and providing an advantage over Android. Given WP7's aim at the higher-end of the market, a viable iPod-type device as well as a tablet based on WP7 are essential in providing a critical mass for application development.

Operator Support - Positive: WP7 presents a less intimidating option for operators than Apple, in that it follows more closely their traditional operator - handset vendor - OS provider ecosystem and provides for operator branding and differentiation. Given the diversity of hardware and wide operator support, this should help drive demand.

Gaming - Positive: Too early to predict, but the Xbox tie-in is unique in the mobile community, and could have a positive impact on device uptake by hard-core gamers. This is Microsoft's battle to lose, and I personally think that WP7 devices could make great remotes.

The Numbers Game - 9 Sep 2010 - by gins

Ten years ago, we were all caught up in the swirl of analyst reports covering how many billions would be spent on optical networking, how many eyeballs were destined to the latest new media website, or how many sock puppets a business model made. Thus, whenever I see the 'B' world floated around, it catches my interest.

Yesterday, Asymco reported that the total number of iapps downloaded would equal iTunes music downloads sometime this year. Today, the iTunes count is approx. 12 billion while the appstore count is closer to 7. Sure, that is an important observation, but the less informed may leave thinking that the iThing's day for music is over. The reality is quite the opposite.

I've got 7700 songs on my iTunes server (all legal, with the CDs collecting dust in the basement). This is 39GB. At any time, I've transferred between 3-5GB to my iPad or those of my kids. Only about 20 in total have been purchased from the iTunes store. While gaming, the kids play music (though my multitasking ability isn't quite there). With true multitasking in a few months enabling the likes of Pandora and Spotify, this will become the norm for many surfing the web or composing an email.

What the numbers do show, however, is the increasing stickiness of the icosystem... the power of recommendation in driving impulse downloads, and disposable applications - those that you download once, kick around a bit, and then push off to the side. You know what would be fun? A tracker much like that which exists for Windows that groups application by last use and time... how many are opened on a daily or weekly basis, and how usage falls off over time (irrespective of how many new levels the Angry Birds folks crank out... I see this firsthand at home). Now that info I'd share. We could make a game of the numbers.