Game-on with Windows Phone 7? - 13 Oct 2010 - by gins

This week, Microsoft took their first necessary step on the road to mobile redemption... the long-anticipated Windows Phone 7 launch. Response was generally upbeat, and although it is too early to place bets, due to both operator and vendor support, the platform will in fact have an impact on the smartphone OS space and on the application developer community. On a personal level, I'm more optimistic of Microsoft's prospects now than at any time over the last two years.

Referencing some of my earlier blogs, I doubt the OS will have a meaningful impact on Apple or on Android (Steve Ballmer's comments notwithstanding), while Symbian, webOS, and the Linux-based also-rans will probably suffer. RIM remains an enigma due to its installed base and focus. RIM's absolute market-share will continue to drop, but the market is large enough for four strong players. So, where did Microsoft get it right, and where do they have work to do?

User Experience - Positive: Here is where they got it right by mandating a minimal set of hardware requirements, despite the negative impact on the low-end of the market that will provide Android with a free reign in the 'value' smartphone space. The hardware baseline will positively impact application development based on this assured experience and will avoid some of the OS version fragmentation experienced within the Android community. However, I do think that the devices initially released don't necessarily take full advantage of the promise of of the OS, and there will probably be a shakeout in terms of form factors.... what works, and what doesn't. Early reviews tend to bear this out.

Windows Marketplace - Neutral to Positive: The marketplace is easy to navigate, or not any less so than iTunes. A current disadvantage is the requirement to purchase apps via credit cards, no different than iTunes, but leveraging a much smaller subscriber base. Going forward, given operator-based payments, this disadvantage should disappear and may actually turn out to be an advantage in other regions.

Device Ecosystem - Negative: Here is where Redmond has work to do, and where Apple has a commanding advantage with its iPod and iPad, especially when one looks at recent sales trends. There are over 120 million iDevices in circulation, begetting a massive developer community. And, control over the user experience is more assured, further encouraging high-end application development and providing an advantage over Android. Given WP7's aim at the higher-end of the market, a viable iPod-type device as well as a tablet based on WP7 are essential in providing a critical mass for application development.

Operator Support - Positive: WP7 presents a less intimidating option for operators than Apple, in that it follows more closely their traditional operator - handset vendor - OS provider ecosystem and provides for operator branding and differentiation. Given the diversity of hardware and wide operator support, this should help drive demand.

Gaming - Positive: Too early to predict, but the Xbox tie-in is unique in the mobile community, and could have a positive impact on device uptake by hard-core gamers. This is Microsoft's battle to lose, and I personally think that WP7 devices could make great remotes.