The Pacific Parlour (24 Oct 16 by gins)

In the past I’ve written about the internet, tying it to earlier modes of communication and transportation such as the railroad.  Well, I finally had a chance to experience one of these earlier modes the US, courtesy of my cousin who was traveling cross-country as part of Amtrak’s Writers in Residence program.  We met up in Seattle, and boarded the Coast Starlight for the twenty-four hour leg to San Jose.  Of all the Amtrak long-distance trains, this route is probably the most popular due to the scenery and the fact that it probably as close-as-possible to the experience from half a century ago.  For this reason:  Having reserved a sleeper, we were able to access the Pacific Parlour Car, the few remaining examples of the Santa Fe’s Hi-Level cars.   And given that even cellular connectivity was spotty through some of the wilderness we passed, you were by necessity thrown into an earlier time. 

A slower pace of life - retirees, European families, and others who see more in the journey than the destination.    I described the experience to my cousin as a long aluminum cruise ship in miniature, and instead of the waves, the mountains and fields.    Plush (rotating) chairs and great cocktails, it was easy to strike up a conversation, but Tobi describes this in much better eloquence than I ever could.  At dinner, you were matched up with others, inviting shared experiences.  Try that on a plane more recent than Pan-Am’s Clipper Service!   Finally, to tie back to earlier posts, the fibers supporting the internet, carrying traffic about 10 million times faster than the train, lay parallel to the tracks.

Rail Routes

Fiber Routes

Make Room! Make Room! (2 Jun 15 by gins)

A recent Washington Post article entitled 'The amazing, surprising, Africa-driven demographic future of Earth, in 9 charts" (whew!) had me thinking about the implications of some of the conclusions and potential scenarios.  At a high-level, it concludes that the Earth must support over 10B people by the end of the century, of which greater than 4B will be in Africa alone.  7B of the world's population will be in developing or least developed countries, most developed countries with the exception of the United States will age and in fact see a population decline, and we still need to traverse a near-term bubble in the dependency ratio in Africa.  Surprisingly, Nigeria alone will host close to a billion by 2100, with China declining to about 1.2B.  But those 1B in Nigeria will be in a less diverse and environmentally rich space less than 1/10 that of China or just over 2x that of California.  So draw a comparison - imagine 500M people here!  And you think the commute on 85 or the I-10 is bad today.

The above projections in fact match those of another UN study that outlines just how much the world will change of the next decades due to urbanization.

What came to mind were two books that had an impact on me.   The first, Make Room! Make Room!, first published in 1966 and better known by the film adaption, Soylent Green, painted a picture of overcrowded cities and environmental ruin.   Timing - 2022, just 7 years from today.  A more impactful follow-up is The Population Bomb, published 47 years ago, predicting mass starvation and effectively throwing in the towel.   At least it helped catalyze the environmental movement.   Fast forward to Elysium, 2013, painting the same dismal picture but at least providing the 'haves' with a way out.   This is one scenario, probably top-of-mind for most looking from the outside in.

But there is another, and this is where are article left off, if we plan for and innovate to lift these 4B people into the middle class.   It goes without saying that political stability is a must, but there is a bit of a Catch-22 in what comes first - empowerment or stability.   One first step is knowledge, and the combination of cellphone coverage (and data, though not tied to a smartphone) and satellite TV (even if a single downlink is shared by a community)  is a major step.  Broadband is on the horizon, and access to big-data is already making an impact in planning based on the more recent availability of Africa-based fiber landings.

With continual declines in solar panel pricing (figure below), community-driven power becomes viable, a catalyst for lighting (and education), health, clean water, and agriculture.   I believe much of this will be at the grass-roots level, and with some international aid, growing foreign investment (from China, the Middle East, and elsewhere) the total energy mix by 2100 will be very different from what was predicted only a decade ago.   A chart by China Research, below, captures this best.   At the same time, we're in a new age of mechanical innovation focused on power efficiency, low-cost, and low-maintenance.  Basically, any electricity generated, water captured, or crops harvested are utilized that much more efficiently.

So yes, I'm optimistic that the 'African Century' won't only lead to 3B new heads to cover and minds and mouths to feed, but it will also provide us with the means to accomplish this.

The Ties That Bind - Redux (posted by gins, 23 Oct 13)

Last September I wrote about the importance of the Donner Pass in connecting the nation, first as a Native American trail, later the route of the Transcontinental Railroad, followed by the auto, the phone, and finally the Internet.  I've always been fascinated by the role the railroad has played building this nation, and last month I visited the final stop of the Station to Station tour, an art and music train that I equate to a 'Burning Man on Rails.'  The Oakland stop was interesting for a number of reasons, one of which was use of the old 16th Street Station.   Think of the station as node on the Iron Internet.  The decaying neoclassical interior was a great juxtaposition to the modern visuals and vibe, and hopefully, at some point the building will be put to good use. 

But not for transportation, as the platform at the station is a stub, a victim of the Interstate Highway System which bypassed the building less than 100 feet to the north.  Few at the event were probably aware of the role the rail played in the growth of the Bay Area, including the recently celebrated 150th anniversary of what is now known as Caltrain, the first regular passenger service west of the Mississippi.  And it was sad that the actual train had to park a few miles distant at the nearest siding.  

An even more important milestone was celebrated during the same week - the 'first shovel' on the proposed high-speed rail line from San Francisco to Los Angeles.  When complete sometime after 2027, other than the Internet, the line will be the quickest way of enabling face-to-face interaction between the two cities.  Impressive that a century-and-a-half technology can still hold its own against highway and air travel wrt time and efficiency.  For those in Europe, Japan, and more recently China, this comes as no surprise.  But here in America, it is one small step forward.